This paper analyses data from the European CDC on the number of new cases of COVID-19 infection and the number of new deaths by country, with a view to predicting the future turnaround of the upward trends. We work with a quadratic time trend model applied to the log of new cases for each country. Our model is used to predict the likely peak of the epidemic in different countries.
India, Canada, and the USA reported significantly more new cases today than predicted by the model, while Sweden reported zero new cases (which were probably reporting delays). Germany, Sweden and Switzerland reported zero new deaths, and Russia and Belgium reported significantly fewer deaths than predicted by the model. The UK reported (slightly) more cases and (slightly) more deaths than predicted by the model but the outcomes were within the model bounds.
Read the latest version of Prof. Linton's paper: When will the Covid-19 Pandemic Peak?
Download the associated code: R-code-for-When-will-Covid-19-pandemic-peak.R
See the latest tables and figures - updated Sunday 21st June 2020
Cases & Deaths
Cases & Deaths
Cases & Deaths
Cases & Deaths
Cases & Deaths
Cases & Deaths
About the author
Professor Oliver Linton is the Professor of Political Economy in the Faculty of Economics and a Fellow of Trinity College, University of Cambridge. His research is focussed on nonparametric and semiparametric methods with an interest in Financial Econometrics.
