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Mueller, H., Rauh, C., Ruggieri, A.

Dynamic Early Warning and Action Model

JIWP Number: 2213

Abstract: This document presents the outcome of two modules developed for the UK Foreign, Commonwealth Development Office (FCDO): 1) a forecast model which uses machine learning and text downloads to predict outbreaks and intensity of internal armed conflict. 2) A decision making module that embeds these forecasts into a model of preventing armed conflict damages.

The outcome is a quantitative benchmark which should provide a testing ground for internal FCDO debates on both strategic levels (i.e. the process of deciding on country priorities) and operational levels (i.e. identifying critical periods by the country experts).

Our method allows the FCDO to simulate policy interventions and changes in its strategic focus. We show, for example, that the FCDO should remain engaged in recently stabilized armed conflicts and re-think its development focus in countries with the highest risks. The total expected economic benefit of reinforced preventive efforts, as defined in this report, would bring monthly savings in expected costs of 26 billion USD with a monthly gain to the UK of 630 million USD.

Keywords: dynamic optimisation, forecasting, internal armed conflict, prevention

Author links: Christopher Rauh  

PDF: jiwp2213.pdf


Theme: transmission