Crowley, M. A., Exton, O. and Han, L.
The Looming Threat of Tariff Hikes: Entry into Exporting under Trade Agreement Renegotiation
AEA Papers and Proceedings
Vol. 110 pp. 547-51 (2020)
Abstract: We examine how the looming threat of tariff hikes under a trade agreement renegotiation impacts firm entry into a trading partner's market by exploiting uncertainty over the future UK-EU trade relationship brought about by the June 2016 Brexit referendum. Using the universe of UK export transactions at the firm and product level, we find that uncertainty over future market access to the EU deterred entry modestly in the months immediately after the Brexit vote, but the deterrent effect increased over time.
Keywords: Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations, Empirical Studies of Trade, Economic Integration
JEL Codes: F13, F14, F15
Author links: Meredith Crowley
Publisher's Link: https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20201020 
Grant: Brexit Project